CMHC Housing Outlook Conference for Monreal and Quebec 2014

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) presented its annual Housing Outlook Conference today to about 800 industry professionals. Under the theme "Beacons to guide you," the speakers analyzed the state of the real estate market in the country, the province and the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA) and also spoke about what will shape tomorrow's market.


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Provincial Outlook

In Quebec, the rather slow economic and employment growth recently will lower demand on the existing and new home markets this year. "The decline in activity on the resale market and the relatively large inventories of new homes will cause housing starts to fall considerably in 2013," said Kevin Hughes, CMHC's Senior Economist for Quebec. That being said, the demographic trends will support housing demand until 2014. At that time, activity on both the existing and new home markets will pick up thanks to a stronger economy and a tighter resale market.

 

 

In 2013, single-detached home starts will be weakened by the current economic environment and the easing of the resale market. Such starts will record a decrease of 17.2 per cent. Meanwhile, starts of multiple-unit housing units, which are in an absorption phase, will register a drop of 24.3 per cent. In 2014, starts of single-detached homes and multi-unit housing will remain relatively stable (13,200 and 23,500 units, respectively). Single-detached houses should stop losing market shares, while the condominium segment will still be in its absorption phase.

 

 

In 2013, transactions on the resale market will decrease by 5.5 per cent. Next year, when conditions will be more conducive to homebuying, resales will start rising again. An increase of 2.6 per cent is forecast for 2014. There has been less pressure on prices in the last few quarters, as demand for existing homes has decreased and supply has increased. This should continue throughout 2014. With the market more balanced, the growth in prices on the resale market will keep weakening in 2013. The average Centris^® price will reach $268,000 this year and then move closer to $270,000 in 2014.