What does the future hold for Toronto's Economy in the 2013 year? I'm doing a forecast based on a number of economic variables, to determine performance of our diversified economy and any external and internal impacts that might influence growth in the Golden Horseshoe Region (GTA). The factors that seem to have the most impact on Toronto is the Global Financial Markets, and Global Currency Markets, outside of that internal factors that determine the growth of the region are heavily tied to our skyscraper and construction industries now amounting to some 7% of Canadian GDP. And construction itself is tied to macro-economic factors such as National and Global Interest rates, or cost of money. So, one by one, we will factor each of these impacts on the Toronto Economy.
Global Financial Markets (Factor: Negative)
The global financial markets seems to be on the rebound, from late last year and continuing into the new year, the stock markets of the key global players has been improving in performance. So why is this a negative for Toronto and our economy in general? Well, if you remember the Financial Crisis, after the initial shock of the collapse Toronto actually did quite well, the cause of this was that International Money was looking for a safe place to go and hide, and as far as investors there is no better place to stash your money than Toronto, as it's safe, it's global and has a solid reputation for financial stability. A global Financial rebound is bad for Toronto, as cash now has other places to go to get a good return. The easy ride will be over for us here.Global Currency Markets (Factor: Neutral)
The currency markets are the world fluctuation on a moments notice and sometimes they over-react to small movements by governments when they adjust their cost on money. Right now, the cost of money in Toronto is very, very low, as the Bank of Canada is trying to continue to stimulate the Canadian Economy. This would lead you to believe that our Currency should be declining in this type of environment however another internal factor will play havoc with this point, and that is that Canada is a large exporter of energy, and a rising global economy, will increase the demand for our dollar, thus raising its price. However in the past the high Canadian petro-dollar has had little impact overall on the Toronto economy with the exception of the manufacturing industry which rely's on exports to the United States to the tune of 85%. Still Toronto is a diversified economy and currency fluctuations have rarely negatively impacted Toronto.
Internal Interest Rates : (Factor: Positive)
The Bank of Canada has stated it's desire, to maintain the low interest rate environment in Canada. This of course will have a positive impact on the Toronto economy, it keeps people buying stuff, and it enables people to repay their debts in a reasonable fashion. Low interest rates will keep the housing market going, even as the federal government continues to tighen up the regulations regarding homebuying and builder financing. Even as hard as they try, the one area of the country that benefits the most from low interest rates is Toronto, as Toronto is the Financial Capital of the country we can turn free money, into more money through investments and trade.
Outlook:
Overall, I'd factor that Toronto's economic outlook for 2013 is fairly positive, however I'll comeback and do a re-analysis of the numbers and external and internal factors to correct my judgement on what I see coming down the line for the future.
Busy Condo Market Boosts Toronto Home Sales
With fewer homes in the detached category available in Toronto, new home buyers seem to be opting for new condos, with sales heading forward at a rocket pace last month. Sales of Existing Homes in the Toronto area moved up by a whopping 2.1% in February 2014, and that is compared to the same time period last year. That was mainly due to a 12.5% increase in the sales of condos within the city so stated by the Toronto Real Estate Board. That will contrasts with the sales declines that occurred in townhomes, detached and semi-detached housing during the month, which was mainly due to a constrained supply of those housing types.
The Canadian Home Mortage Corporation (CMHC) set to alter Mortgage Insurance Rates
The federal agency which regulates mortgage insurance in Canada is set to alter the rates which is charges new home buyers to insure their mortgages against the risk of default. These premiums which new homeowners must pay to get CMHC insurance may also impact the ability of homebuyers to purchase their homes. The federal government has been trying for quite some time to reign in the Toronto and Vancouver Housing markets where the average cost of a single family detached home has now reached over $1 million dollars.
RBC Financial Group Warns, that Rising Mortgage Rates will Make Home Ownership Unaffordable for Most Canadians.
The Royal Bank of Canada is warning that the tide of rising interest rates will make home ownership for most Canadians unaffordable. This will be very true in Toronto and Vancouver where home prices have recently climbed over $1 Million dollars for a single family detached home. Servicing of interest related to home ownership such as mortgage rates, as well as mortgage insurance are set to rise, or have been rising over the past year. The longer term interest rates are moving at such a pace that the incomes of most Canadians will not be able to keep up. The good news however is that the rising interest rates foretell a improving economy for most Canadians looking to improve their financial situation
New Report States: Alberta to Lead Canadian Construction Through the Next Decade
The Alberta Home Construction Industry is set to become the new leader on the Canadian scene as states a new report from BuildForce Canada 2014-2023 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward Forecast which sees the pace of expansion in the western province expanding at an exponential rate. Home construction in Alberta has now passed the 2008 peak and is set for further growth. Also on the Alberta front outside of homebuilding, the Oil and Gas Sector looks set to power Alberta’s economy into the next decade. The Alberta Construction Industry has adapted well to conditions on the ground and looks set for future growth.
Sotheby’s Agent Tells Tales of the Toronto Real Estate Market
One agent, points out a 1500 square foot condo near the High Park area, it is already asking for a price well over $1.5 million dollars. This is the time we live in the agent states, as the supply of single family detached homes slows, and the supply of condos increases, so too do the prices which these properties command on the open market. Toronto is no different than New York City in a sense, the agent bemuses. He tells tales of homes listed for 735,000 dollars going over 1 million dollars and above. These homes appeal to a certain demographic, one that wants the convenience of downtown living, as well as having a detached or semi detached home close to the core.
Calgary's Real Estate Market is Creating Bidding Wars For Properties
And Calgary’s Market for Real Estate is becoming an example of the fact demand for housing in increasing as nearly 20 per cent of MLS residential sales in the city in February were for above list price. A Bank of Montreal Housing and Home Buying Report said 34% per cent of Canadians are willing to enter a bidding war when it’s time to buy a home, an increase of six points, or 21 per cent, from a year ago. The report, conducted by Pollara, said that in major city centres, the appetite for competitive bids is the highest in Toronto and Vancouver (44 per cent and 41 per cent respectively). In Calgary, it is 38 per cent and in Alberta, it is 30 per cent.
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